Earlier, in what appeared to be more than a
mere coincidence, Buhari announced plans to make more political appointments
and promised that in doing so he would allow the Governors and party
apparatchiks to make in-puts.In his previous appointments, it is thought that
he sidelined those groups and chose whoever it pleased his fancy and those of
his inner cabinet (or the ‘cabal’) to choose.
What can we expect from the President’s one-
day visit to Ebonyi state on November 14, 2017 and another one- day visit to
Anambra State the following day?
There is no doubt that the President has image
problem in the Southeast. The image problem is often dramatized by vested
interests in the number of votes he got in the region – 198,248 as against the
2,464,906 secured by President Jonathan. The politicisation of the disparity in
the votes secured by Buhari in the region and the incorrect reading of its
import contributed immeasurably inworsening the relations between the region
and the President.
It would seem that in the early months of his
government Buhari bought into the narrative of being hated by the Igbos by a
simplistic reliance on the vote figures he got from the region.We saw this in
the exclusion of the Igbos in the early appointments into his kitchen cabinet, his
statement about 95 per cent versus 5 per cent, the relocation of 47 Boko Haram
prisoners to Ekwulobia prison, Anambra state, without offering any explanation
– among others. Obviously groups like IPOB tapped into the situation and
worsened matters.
The President’s visit affords him the
opportunity to feel the pulse of the people and hopefully re-invent himself in
the region. A starting point is to go beyond the simplistic interpretation of
the import of his electoral figures in the region as evidence of hate.
The truth is that historically the critical elements of the Igbo faction
of the Nigerian elite rarely like to play ‘opposition’ politics – or put
crudely to be shut off from the corridors of power. In the First Republic for
instance, Zik’s NCNC was in alliance with Sarduana’s NPC just as Zik’s NPP was
also in alliance with the NPC’s reincarnate, the NPN in the Second Republic
(1979-1983).
In fact, the Igbo political elites’ philosophy
of the ‘goat follows the man with the palm fronds’ was dramatized in 1983,
when, despite the Great Zik’s leadership of the NPP in the Second
Republic, most of the eminent Igbo politicians chose to join NPN,
the ruling party at the centre at that time, abandoning Zik, so to
say. Again it should be recalled that when the late Yar’Adua became
gravely ill and a cabal around him did not want power to be transferred to then
Vice President Dr Goodluck Jonathan, the South- east Governors collectively
aligned themselves with the cabal.
So the decision by the Igbo elites to massively
support Jonathan was partly in tandem with their philosophy of the ‘goat
follows the man with the palm frond’ and not necessarily anything personal
against Buhari as it was being interpreted.If this philosophy is still strong
among Igbo political elites, it means that Buhari, as an incumbent President,
may also benefit from it – if the size of the crowd that welcomed him in both
Ebonyi andAnambraStates were anything to go by (and assuming the crowd was not
rented). It can also be argued that the fact that an APC candidate in the
November 18 governorship election in Anambra State is regarded as one of the
key contenders in the race is already an indication of the softening of
attitude in the region towards Buhari and his party, the APC.
But how do we interpret the Igbo political
elite’s philosophy of the ‘goat follows the man with the palm fronds’? Is
it reflective of lack of political principle or is it pragmatic politics?
Some have argued that being very diasporic and
with homes and businesses in every nook and cranny of the country, it will be
unwise for them to play ‘opposition’ politics as they need to be friends with
the government at the centre to ensure friendly policies that will protect the
group’s interests across the country. Proponents of this view will often
point to top business people like Aliko Dangote who seem to be friends with any
government in power at the centre. But while it will remain debatable whether
this type of politics is crass opportunism or pragmatism, it is however symptomatic
of the character of our politics, which hinges on fears that the group that
wins power at the centre will inevitably use such power to privilege its
in-group or disadvantage others.
There were certainly other reasons for
Buhari’s poor outing in the region in 2015 but the point is that some of the
structural issues that played against him as a candidate may now also play in
his favour as an incumbent – if he manages his relations with the region well,
including its optics.
In essence Buhari’s visit affords him the
opportunity to soften his mind about the people in the region – and vice versa.
It is human nature that sometimeswhen you meet someone you are angry with, the
anger has a way of softening on its own – just by a human feeling that the
other person may actually not be as bad as you thought from a distance.
It is instructive that during the visit (in which Buhari appeared relaxed and
happy with the reception he received in both states) he was conferred with the
chieftaincy title of Ochi Oha Ndigbo (Leader of all in Igboland) by the South
East Traditional Rulers and Enyi Oma 1 (Number one good friend) of Ebonyi State
by the Ebonyi State Traditional Council).
During the visit Buhari did precisely what
incumbents on campaign trails do – talk about dividends of their administration
for the area they are visiting and commission new projects. Buhari did not miss
the chance to tell his guests that he gave four senior ministerial slots to
four of the five states in the Southeast and that in the 2018 Budget before the
National Assembly the Second Niger Bridge was allocated ten billion Naira.
Other projects in the Southeast he unveiled included construction of new
international airport terminal in Enugu, a coastal rail line that passes
through Aba in Abia State and Onitsha in Anambra State and a promise that the
Federal government is todredge the River Niger to satisfy the yearning for
maritime access to the sea by the South-east and the North.
Going by the recent statistics of the
distribution of appointments and infrastructure by the Buhari government, it
will appear there are areas that the Buhari government may not be getting as
much credit as it deserves in the Southeast. This could be a result of several
factors: Buhari’s communication style, which needs to be changed to recognize
the crucial role of optics in politics and these ‘positives’ not being well
communicated or communicated by those who have lost credibility in the eyes of
the public such that the messenger, so to say, becomesthe message.
A softening of attitude in the Southeast
towards the Buhari presidency may not necessarily translate into electoral
victory for Dr Nwoye, the President’s candidate, in the November 18 2017
Anambra State governorship election. This is because the Igbos seem to be
currently struggling for a new identity within the Nigerian political space and
it remains unclear which of the contending forces in the region will triumph.
While in the past all it would have taken to placate the Igbo political elites
against opposition to the Buhari government would probably be promises of
contract and perhaps land allocations in choice locations in Abuja or Lagos, in
the last few years, there are forces in the region pushing for a new form of
politics that is antithetical to joggling to be a junior partner with any
government at the centre. While some within this group try to anchor the
new identity on ‘marginalization’ some are trying to revolve it around a neo
Biafra identity that seeks to build Igbo solidarity on a shared victimhood
narrative. In this sense these forces are trying to play catch-up to the Yoruba
political elite which for long glamorized opposition politics as ‘progressive’
politics and consequently placed more premium in having the Oduduwa states
being under one political umbrella than being a junior partner in any
government.
Email: pcjadibe@yahoo.com
Twitter: @JideoforAdibe
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