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Osinbajo Blows Hot, Warns Neighbouring Countries

Let me again thank you all for your attendance at this Quarterly Business Forum on agriculture, agribusiness, and the agro allied value chain. I think we are at a special moment in our journey to food security, and to becoming a power of sorts, especially of processed agricultural products in particular.
We are in a special moment because the Federal Government has shown commitment towards agriculture and entire value chain. We have seen enthusiasm of all the players, including the small farmers all across the country.
Getting feedback concerning issues that have been raised, there is cheaper credit, and the President directed that we set up a small committee to look at the issue of intervention funds in agriculture. It is clear, that we are not able to bring down interest rates overnight, the way out is by some kind of intervention agreement.
I chair a committee to look at how to monitor and use intervention funds. We will ensure that the funds go to the right people and also monitor the use of the funds. We are also refining the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, and other intervention schemes that we have.
Listening to questions concerning lower tariffs, we must pay higher tariffs, these sorts of things are inevitable. What we are trying to do is not increase tariffs for now, but how we can ensure we clean up the entire value chain. I’m sure you are aware of the Payment Assurance Guarantee which we put in place for over N700billion to ensure gas is paid for and for liquidity in the whole value chain.
Today, we will be meeting with the World Bank on a scheme they have been working with us on to fund the entire value chain, and ensure we transit smoothly from where we are, to a much more market-determined policy for electricity. This will involve a fair amount of subsidy and help the Federal Government and World Bank are working together on that. There is no way of sustaining the current subsidies long term, but we want to ensure the process is smooth.
Dealing with the gridlock in Apapa port, the first thing to recognize is that the port is meant to be a 34 million metric tonnes capacity port. Now it is doing 80million metric tonnes, so it is obviously a port far too small for the size of business it is doing.
We have met with all of the important stakeholders, asides from those who do their business there like Flourmills, Dangote and BUA. We have also met with the Navy, Police, NPA, Lagos State Government, all federal agencies working in the ports and port concessionaires.
At our last meeting, we worked on a number of initiatives and agreed on a number of things that have to be done. I went personally to see for myself what was going on in the port area. There is a major problem there, but everyone has agreed on what to do and there is a plan which we are executing. Nothing would happen overnight, but we have a good plan that will make it work.
We have taken a number of decisions; empty containers are to be relocated to holding bays, shipping companies would no longer be allowed to operate holding bays within the port, tank farms would not to be permitted within the Apapa area and process licensing access to trailer parks by NPA to commence. A task force has been set up to manage traffic within the Apapa and Tin Can Island environs.
The PEBEC team has been monitoring what’s going on and we are watching closely to solve the problem. As you can imagine, it is a long running problem and the roads in that neighborhood are extremely bad but we are trying to fix them.
We agreed that Dangote Group will carry out palliative works and reconstruction of some major sections of the Apapa road, which is expected to be completed by June 2018. Procurement processes have also been concluded for construction of Liverpool road to Tin Can, to Mile 2, Oworonshoki up to the toll gate. The Honeywell Group has committed to construct a trailer park, they have started and will complete it very shortly. BUA Group agreed to do the works around the Tin Can Island road. We have it in hand, and we are watching and following up on it.
On excise duty, I have read the PWC study, which goes in one particular direction. And being a professor and having read several studies, I know how studies can generally represent the point of view that you prefer. We will consult the study, and make sure that this does not hamper business and raise costs in any way to discourage production.
On poultry, we go back to the problem around smuggling and what to do when supply does not meet demand. There is a huge demand for poultry and despite local production, people are still buying imported poultry. Just as we did, with tomatoe paste industry, we must work something out with poultry.
In developing the policy for the tomatoe industry, we were quite sure of what it would take to bring local production to the point where cost don’t go high because we are banning imports. We have got a fair balance and soon all will see the policy as a good one. With poultry, it is a similar situation, it is something we must work on and the Honourable Minister of Agriculture will work on that, so that we can get some sort of balance.
Smuggling is a serious threat to our economy, and Mr. President has asked me to head a team to work out what needs to be done. We are making the point to our neighbors, that smuggling is an existential threat, we can’t permit the level of smuggling going on.
Last year, there was over 500,000 metric tonnes of rice around Christmas, which the Minister of Agriculture told us about and how it came in through one of our neighbours, but we blocked it.
Now, three shiploads of rice have left Thailand, 120,000 metric tonnes, going to this same neighbour of ours who have very large warehouses where they store this rice. It is very clear that this rice is for us because our neighbours don’t consume parboiled rice, they consume the white broken rice. It is clear that our neighbours do excellent business, with allowing rice to come into Nigeria and other products including poultry
I think it is important for us as a country, to make the point clear, that we are not going to accept that. We are all within the same economic zone and work together, so we go in a friendly and polite manner as possible, to ensure that this practice stops.
For those who are familiar with it, the duty in some of these neighboring countries, especially for rice, is deliberately set lower than ours, it is about a fourth of ours. We have increased duty tax so as to discourage importation but they would naturally drop duty to encourage import and then it would come to Nigeria.
I think we are at a point where we are making a fair amount of progress with the land issues also with the State Governors. It is not a problem we can solve overnight. For titling of land, banks find it difficult to accept lands just as it is, banks won’t accept the lands without titles, one of the issues we are working with State Governments is to ensure titles are done effectively and effectively as quickly as possible. Lagos, Kano and Rivers are working very well with us.
We have an Ease of Doing Business initiative for the sub-nationals, and at the moment, a road show is going on, trying to encourage State Governments to work with us. There is no national policy on land titling.
With respect to land clearing, we have heard from BOI and Minister of Agriculture on how we need to assist States, particularly the Southwest, to ensure that we support land clearing.
I have noted the suggestions that have been on a standing -consultative forum on agriculture and agri-business. This will be extremely useful and we should do. How we should go about it will be left with the Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment to work those out.
So let me again express my gratitude to your all for you time and for all of what you have done to make the Nigerian economy work well. All of us know how difficult it has been, but I am encouraged by the efforts which individuals, associations and groups are making to improve things, our circumstances and our situation as an economy.
We are all firmly of the view that this country can do a lot more than what it is doing if we get the infrastructure and incentives right. This country can be one of the major agriculture and agric-business centres in the world. I am sure if we work together we can achieve all of that.
Fundamental to our economic policy is private sector leadership, and we have emphasized that time and time again. We have tried to establish several public – private sector platforms including this one, the quarterly business forum. The constant engagement in my view is the way to go.
If we continuously engage and interact this way, we will resolve most of the problems that stand in the way of our becoming the great economy that our country surely has the potential to be.



Source: NTA News

OPINION: The Fear of Zero Growth by Nonso Obikili

The risks to the Nigerian economy have been clear for a while now. Prior to the oil price collapse, it was clear the dominance of crude oil in terms of exports was a risk. That, and the governments reliance on earnings from crude oil. The goal, therefore, was to minimize that risk by diversifying the export base to include more than just crude oil, as well as diversifying government revenue.
To that end, growth in the non-oil sector was of paramount importance. There were other spill-over effects. The oil sector is notorious for not really creating jobs. Dealing with unemployment also required growth in non-oil sectors, specifically with sectors that lean toward labour, and in our specific case, low skilled labour. So, sectors like manufacturing, construction, and agriculture were very important.
The crude oil price crash brought all those risks to the fore and to some extent we saw the consequences. The policy choices aside, the economy was always going to go through some pain as a result. The crisis however brought with it the opportunity for reform. Reforms that improved productivity growth in key non-oil sectors, specifically reform that would have been difficult to swallow during normal times. This is, of course, presuming that the right set of macroeconomic policies were implemented. The economy would have taken a hit regardless, but the icing on the cake would have been a recovery that was strong and set the economy on a good growth trajectory.
I’m not going to go into the reality of how we responded to the crisis. From a macroeconomic perspective, we chose to sacrifice all at the alter of the exchange rate. From a general economic policy perspective, we basically did nothing while waiting for the oil price to recover. OK, we didn’t exactly do nothing although the things we did might have been counter-productive. The war on trade, the intervention-fund-fuelled monetary expansion, government crowding out the private sector with its debt program, to name a few. Then again we passed the doing business exam, but still. My fear was that, even though we would exit recession, the policy cocktail implied that we would stumble along with no growth for a while.
The latest GDP numbers do nothing to assuage that fear. Although the economy grew in real terms, if you strip out the oil sector then there was actually a contraction. More worryingly, in sectors which actually create jobs, like manufacturing, construction, and trade, the contraction is apparent. Agriculture grew but at a slower rate than it did in 2015 and 2016 during the peak of the crisis.
To be clear, it is always dangerous to make statements off one data point, but looking at the trend in non-oil growth, it does appear that have entered a period of no growth. If you add the fact that population is growing at around 2.9 percent, then no-growth in the non-oil sector should be very worrying to all.
So what do we do about it? The truth, in my opinion, is the window for serious policy reform is closed until 2019. To ask any government to implement serious reform now is to ask that government to commit electoral suicide, and governments typically do not do that.
Reforms that we need
But just in case anyone is in the mood then here are three places to start. First, there needs to be a strategy change with respect to financing infrastructure. The current strategy of government borrowing to finance projects is not capable of delivering the kind of improvement in infrastructure that is required, simply because of the scale of investments required. The focus has to switch to driving private capital into infrastructure.
Secondly, the government needs to rethink its exertions on the financial sector. Credit to the private sector has been flat or declining since mid-2016 and that is largely due to the governments debt program. Crowding out as we call it. It is difficult to for an economy to grow without credit. The plan to retire some debt instruments with the Eurobond proceeds is a good one but the government needs to seriously rethink its deficit financing strategy. Banks and other financial institutions will need to leave their risk-free debt purchasing business, or shashe banking as a friend calls it, and return to lending to the real sector. And no, issuing debt to distribute via low-interest intervention loans in not a solution.
Finally, people need more economic freedom. It might sound trivial but the freedom to do things is a fundamental part of economic activity. The freedom to trade (internationally), the freedom to buy and sell foreign exchange, the freedom to move stuff up and down without harassment or unnecessary taxation, the freedom to pursue productivity growth even if it means you have to import all the ingredients for your jollof rice. Note that I am NOT asking for complete free trade, but the government needs to seriously rethink its trade strategy.
These three things can be done within the next twelve months, and if they are we should see a pickup in non-oil growth. The benefits of being in recession is that you get the policy urgency to do things to turn the ship around. Being a no growth economy though, that is perhaps an even more difficult thing to get out of.

Nonso Obikili is an economist currently roaming somewhere between Nigeria and South Africa. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not reflect the views of his employers.




Nigeria’s economy is bouncing back—thanks to its oil - Quartz Africa

Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari and his administration have spent much of the last two and half years since he came to office championing the idea that for Africa’s largest economy to have any hope of making meaningful progress it needs to diversify away from its reliance on oil.
But that day has not come. In fact, president Buhari will be relieved oil prices and local production have both picked up pace in the last few months because they have combined to help Nigeria record two consecutive quarters of economic growth for the first time since the end of 2015.
It might seem like a minor milestone, but after five straight quarters of the economy shrinking, it represents much more. Over the past year, Nigeria had been mired in its first recession in over two decades but latest data from Nigeria’s statistics bureau (NBS) shows that the country’s recovery, albeit slow, is on track. It recorded 1.4% growth in the third quarter.
Nigeria’s recession was triggered mainly by troubles in its oil sector. The fall in global oil prices coincided with a brief resumption in militancy in Nigeria’s oil-rich down south which caused oil production levels to fall to 20-year lows. As a result, Nigeria’s oil revenues fell sharply and, to stem the bleeding, the central bank set up currency controls to conserve its foreign reserves but that spawned a dollarshortage which hit local businesses hard.
As always, the turnaround in Nigeria’s economic fortunes is linked to its oil. In the third quarter of 2017, oil production has reached its highest point since the first quarter of 2016, NBS data shows. Nigeria’s president Buhari will certainly be hoping the growth streak continues. With only one full year left in office, Buhari has proposed a $23.9 billion recordbudget for 2018. But to fund it, Nigeria will have to step up its oil production even more as the budget is based on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day—around 200,000 more than it currently produces.
Another way the government plans to shore up the deficit budget is through external borrowing. Its latest dollar eurobond launch is looking to raise at least $2.5 billion and is reportedly on course to do so. It follows on the heels of a $1 billion eurobond loanraised in February.


Source: Quartz Africa

Nigeria floats $3bn bond to fund #2018Budget

The Federal Government has floated the much awaited US$3 billion dual series bond to fund approved budgetary expenditures.
A statement from the Federal Ministry of Finance yesterday quoted Minister  Kemi Adeosun as saying that “the government would utilise the proceeds of the Notes in funding the approved budgetary expenditures and for refinancing of domestic debt, as may be applicable.”
According to Mrs. Adeosun, the Notes represent Nigeria’s fourth Eurobond issuance, following issuances in 2011, 2013 (two series) and earlier in 2017.
She noted: “Nigeria is implementing an ambitious economic reform agenda designed to deliver long-term sustainable growth and reduce reliance on oil and gas revenues while reducing waste and improving the efficiency of government expenditure.
“Our economy is beginning to recover, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) having returned to growth in 2017, but we must maintain the momentum behind our investments in order to further drive growth. That is why we are, and will continue to focus investment on the enabling infrastructure we need to broaden economic productivity.
“Successfully extending out debt profile in the international market to 30 years is a key element of that strategy as it establishes a basis for the longer term financing required for transformational infrastructure investment.
“As we have always stated we are progressively replacing debt with revenue, which is reflected in the 2018 Budget proposal. We are establishing the building blocks for inclusive growth and beginning to see the results of the hard decisions that have been made to reset our economy appropriately.”
The aggregate principal amount of the dual series bond is being offered notes under the Federal Government’s US$4.5 billion Global Medium Term Note programme (increased from US$1.5 billion).
The Notes comprise a US$1.5 billion 10-year series and a US$1.5 billion 30-year series.
The Ministry of Finance said “the 10-year series will bear interest at a rate of 6.5%, while the 30-year series will bear interest at a rate of 7.625%, which will be repayable with a bullet repayment of the principal on maturity.
The statement said “the offering, which attracted significant interests from leading global institutional investors, is expected to be closed on or about 28 November, 2017, subject to the satisfaction of various customary closing conditions.”
When issued, the Notes will be admitted to the official list of the UK Listing Authority and available to trade on the London Stock Exchange’s regulated market.
Nigeria may apply for the Notes to be eligible for trading and listed on the Nigerian FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange and the Nigerian Stock Exchange.
The pricing was determined following a roadshow led by Mrs. Adeosun; the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma; Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Godwin Emefiele; Debt Management Office (DMO) Director-General Ms. Patience Oniha, and the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Mr. Ben Akabueze.
Commenting on the Notes’ pricing, the DMO Director-General Patience Oniha said: “With the successful pricing of our 4th Eurobond, Nigeria has become one of the few African issuers whose securities have attracted strong investor interest amongst institutional investors across the globe.
“This time, Nigeria issued a new 10-year bond at a yield of 6.500% and a 30-year benchmark, priced at a yield of 7.625%, which despite the longer tenure remains cheaper than our 15-year issuance earlier this year.
“The 30-year is a landmark as the tenor represents the first by a sub-Saharan country other than South Africa and importantly establishes the basis for long term infrastructure funding, which is a priority for this government.”
Oniha expressed satisfaction with international investors’ recognition of Nigeria’s huge potential.
“Perhaps even more important is that with this dual tranche issuance the objective of reducing the cost of government borrowing has been achieved,” she added.



Source: The Nation

#Nigeria's GDP growth doubles in Q3 — hits 1.4 percent

 
The economy recorded a growth of 1.40 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to data which the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Monday.
This is the second time of such positive development since Nigeria exited recession in the second quarter.
NBS statistics showed that the agricultural sector grew by 3.06 percent in the third quarter of 2017 as against the 3.01 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2017.
The Q2 GDP growth, which was formerly put at 0.55 percent, was revised to 0.72% following revisions by NNPC to oil output.
Quarter-on-quarter, real GDP growth was 8.97%
“Oil production is estimated to have averaged 2.03million barrels per day (mbpd), 0.15million barrels higher than the revised daily average production recorded in the second quarter of 2017 (revised from 1.84mbpd to 1.87mbpd),” the report said.
Agriculture, other services and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply were the sectors that led growth in the non-oil sector which grew by 0.3 percent to stand at -0.76 percent from -0.79 percent.
“In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 89.96% to the nation’s GDP, lower than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2016 (91.91%) and in the second quarter of 2017 (90.96%),” the report read.
“Cement under manufacturing sector contracted by -4.56% in Q3 2017 from -4.16% in Q2 2017 and -6.26% in Q3 2016.
“Telecommunications & information services under information and communication sector contracted by -5.68% in Q3 2017 from -1.92% in Q2 2017 and 0.95% in Q3 2016.”
The economy had recorded negative GDP growth in 2016 thus slipping into a recession.


Read full data here

Elumelu: Multiple taxation kills 95% of small businesses in Nigeria

Tony Elumelu, chairman of Heirs Holdings, says multiple taxations and levies kill 95 percent of small and medium scale businesses in Nigeria.
NAN reports that Elumelu made this statement on Thursday while speaking at the Lagos Business School Alumni Association 2017 Alumni Day in Lagos.
He said five percent of the small businesses that survived after one year was a big disincentive to the nation in terms of employment creation.
The entrepreneur said multiple business regulation, multiple taxation and inconsistent government policies affect SMEs competitiveness and their ability to attract capital in their investment climate.
He said despite the multiple taxation, Nigeria remains the lowest in the world with 10 percent tax contribution to gross domestic product (GDP).
“It seems we have a big problem, because, with high taxation and multiple levies, it is expected we should have very high tax revenue,’’ he said.
He said the government should find out the reason for the discrepancy between desired growth and development.
He urged the government to create a more conducive environment that would encourage survival of SMEs in order to reduce the unemployment rate.
“Government doesn’t create jobs, it is the right enabling environment for SMEs that create jobs.”
He urged the government to streamline all taxation and levies across the three tiers of government to avoid the collapse of SMEs.
Taiwo Oyedele, head of tax and corporate advisory services, PwC Nigeria, called for the amendment of the constitution to ensure coordination among the three tiers of government and their agencies.
Oyedele said the multiplicity of government agencies with the same work function was becoming worrisome.
“You don’t need tax incentives for people to do business, we just need to remove the disincentives,” he said.


Source: The Cable

#2018Budget: Minister reveals how FG intends to fund budget

Minister for Budget and National Planning, Sen. Udoma Udo Udoma says Federal Government will fund the 2018 budget using key reform initiatives contained in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).
He said this on Tuesday in Abuja while presenting an overview of the 2018 budget proposal.
The budget, tagged “Budget of Consolidation’’, which  was presented to the joint session of the National Assembly by President Muhammadu Buhari on Nov. 7 is expected to reinforce and build on recent accomplishments of the government.
Its key parameters include a crude oil benchmark price of 45 dollar per barrel, oil production estimate of 2.3 million barrels per day and exchange rate of N305 per dollar.
The budget also has projected oil revenue of N2.442 trillion and non-oil projection of N4.165 trillion.
It has a capital expenditure projection of N2.428 trillion, recurrent expenditure of N3.494 trillion, N2.014 trillion for debt servicing and fiscal deficit of N2.005 trillion.
Udoma said Federal Government would deploy new technology to improve revenue collection, enhance tighter performance management framework for State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and stronger enforcement action against tax defaulters.
He added that the 2018 revenue projections reflects new funding mechanism for Joint Venture (JV) operations, allowing for cost recovery in lieu of previous cash call arrangements.
He noted that “there will be restructuring of government’s equity in JV oil assets, reduction in equity holding with proceeds to be reinvested in other assets.
“This will improve efficiencies in the operations of the JVs and position them for better revenue performance in future, increase in excise duty rates on alcohol and tobacco.
“Tax administration improvement initiatives to positively affect collection efficiencies across various tax categories such as tax amnesty programme.’’
Udoma said additional oil-related revenue including: royalty recovery, new/marginal field licences, early licencing renewals and review of the fiscal regime for oil Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs), would also be employed.
He explained that oil revenue would account for 37 per cent of the estimated revenue, while independent revenue was put at 12.8 per cent, JV equity restricting, 10.7 per cent, Company Income Tax (CIT), 12 per cent and Value Added Tax (VAT), 3.1 per cent.
“Customs is expected to account for 4.9 per cent, recoveries, 7.8 per cent, tax amnesty 1.3 per cent, signature bonus 1.7 per cent, grants and donor funding 3 per cent and other unnamed sources to account for 5.5 per cent of the revenue."
He said just like earlier budgets by the administration, it would ensure that funds were geared toward financing various capital projects
He cited some projects the Federal Government would embark on across several sectors of transport, power, health, education, works, housing, water resources agriculture and rural development, mines and steel development and special intervention programmes among others.
The minister said though the Federal Government had earmarked N2.42 trillion for capital projects, it would attract private sector involvement in the implementation of the projects, especially roads.
“What we need to construct roads is in trillions and we do not have that money now that is why we are involving Public Private Partnerships (PPP).
“Let us say what we have in the budget to use for roads, though would not be enough, would be Federal Government’s contribution towards construction of roads, while other support would come from the private sector.’’

Source: PulseNG




The Nigerian Recession: We must never walk this way again - Osinbajo

The story of the Nigerian recession must be told often, and more importantly, truthfully. There are two reasons why; the first is so as to ensure that never again, do we experience the horrors and deprivations of a recession, the second is that we cannot afford another recession, not now or in the future.
Permit me to quickly retell that story as I understand it, of how we got into a recession. Three reasons: one, we were running an unstable economic structure. Oil alone contributed 70% of budgetary revenues and 90%, perhaps more than that, of our foreign exchange revenues.
Up to 50–53% of the non-oil sector was dependent on the oil sector. Consequently, the fortunes of up to 60% of the Nigerian economy, rested on this volatile sector. This shaky foundation was masked in the past by high oil prices, but as soon as oil prices fell, the weakness showed.
The second weakness in our economic structure is that it had mainly been consumption driven with a high propensity to import. Worse still, we were importing food, food that we could grow. Our unsustainable food importation bill at some point, was over N1trilion, it was particularly damning for the economy as foreign exchange revenues dried up.
In 2015, oil prices fell to as low as $28 at some point. But worse still, throughout 2016 we lost almost a million barrels a day in oil production due to vandalization and sabotage of oil facilities and pipelines. We lost something in the order of about 60% of our revenues. Yet we could have survived without going into a recession, I think Dr. Teriba so ably stated that, we could have survived if we had savings. But we had no savings only debt.
As economists would say, and as Dr. Teriba had said, we did not have the fiscal buffers to enable a counter-cyclical approach. In other words, we lacked the savings to see us through the lean times. Why? Why did we lack savings, when so much money was being made? This is the elephant in the room.
This leads us to the second reason for the recession — corruption! Unbridled corruption and waste. I think it is important for us to emphasize that, so that we do not think that the recession was just something that occurred in a cyclical fashion — just another economic occurrence. No! It was not another economic occurrence, it was unbridled corruption on a scale that was unprecedented anywhere in the world, is what we experienced in Nigeria. It is important that we emphasize it so we don’t walk this way again.
The figures speak for themselves. Between 2013 and 2015 with oil prices averaging up to $110 per barrel, sometimes going to as high as $150, the government of the day somehow contrived to increase national debt from N7.9 trillion to N12.1 trillion while reducing external reserves from $45 billion to $28 billion as of May 2015.
Of course, we all know that there was very little by the way of investment in infrastructure and capital projects. In fact in 2015, capital spend was less than 11%. So there was very little to show for where this money went.
I don’t want to keep repeating some of the incredible things that happened, a few weeks before the last elections; how large sums of money, a 100billion in cash ostensibly for security. Another $289million in cash was paid out in the same period. No country can survive that kind of unbridled waste and corruption. We must never forget, that corruption is perhaps, the most outrageous cause of our economic decline.
Aside from barefaced stealing or waste of resources, the inflation of contracts and other procurements ensures that the cost of infrastructure necessary for development will always be unaffordable. So if what we should spend on building a 200km road ends up being spent on a 20 km road, there is no way we are going to make any progress and there is no way we won’t end up in some kind of economic decline or the other.
Today, we can say that despite the 60% or even more reduction in revenues from oil, we are bailing out the States and our capital spend in 2016 was close to N1.3trillion, the highest yet in the country’s history. So with more prudent management, it is possible to do more with far less money.
Permit me to comment on two of the other major causes for the deepening of the recession. One is the intractable delays in the budget approval process and two the long procurement processes.
If the budget process takes up to 5 months of the financial year and procurement is another 3months we have already ensured that the economy will be at a standstill for most of the year.
The truth is that no developing economy can afford the luxury of prolonged executive/legislative wrangling over the budget. Developed economies with strong and independent private sectors may be able to cope, but Nigeria simply cannot.
Budgetary delay in a situation of national economic emergency, and the hardship encountered by so many, is simply wrong and unacceptable. Neither the executive nor the legislature can excuse itself. It is wrong for us to hold up the budget for that long. The delays of course, will ensure that money will not flow into the economy, and that capital projects will not be done.
Let us go back to the first reason why we must remind ourselves about the recession story. It is so that we do not go down this road again, how do we make sure we don’t?
It was clear to this government, that the solution to getting Nigeria out of recession, requires focused and determined leadership to take immediate and long-term measures to tackle our weak economic foundations. This found expression is in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan of Government.
The recovery intended in the Plan was truly to take the economy out of recession, but in addition, it was to stem the slide in growth that occurred since 2014. We accordingly prioritized, actions to restore oil production at home through a New Vision for the Niger Delta, while working with our international partners to stabilize oil prices.
The results are clear, with oil production now at 2million barrels per day (including condensates which are not part of the OPEC quota) and our external reserves now stand at about $34billion.
A second plank of immediate actions taken was ensuring that consumption and investment did not contract any further. The Federal Government did paid its own salary obligations and extended support to the States to pay the backlog of salaries.
In addition our social intervention programmes put money in the hands of Nigerians through N-Power jobs for young graduates, about 200,000 have been engaged and another 300,000 are in the pipeline for engagement, microcredit loans for market women and artisans, and indirectly, by paying for meals for primary school children through our home grown school feeding programme.
The capital spend of about N1.3 trillion in the 2016 budget was unprecedented, but it was important in ensuring that money would go into the economy. This capital spend had the dual purpose, one — boosting growth through government spending but also to provide infrastructure to underpin what we hope would be a fast-growing, dynamic and diversified economy.
Moreover promoted the productive sectors of agriculture, manufacturing and solid minerals. It is well known that the agricultural sector continued to grow even during the recession due to the emphasis that we placed on sector through schemes like the Anchor Borrowers Programme and the Presidential Initiative on Fertilizer. I will return to this point briefly.
Industry returned to positive growth in the second quarter of this year after nine successive quarters of decline since 2014. This was of course due to the increased availability of foreign exchange for imports of intermediate goods and raw materials, more spirited efforts being made by local industries to source for raw materials, and also less onerous business conditions.
Indeed, our efforts to create a more business friendly environment yielded fruit only a few days ago when we exceeded our target of moving up on the World Bank’s ease of doing business rankings. We moved up 24 places instead of our target of 20 and we were named one of the 10 best reforming economies in the world.
It is important to emphasize that the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council is a collaboration between the Executive, legislature and the private sector. I must commend the legislature for playing its part promptly and faithfully by passing two watershed pieces of legislation on the credit bureau and movable assets. These two legislatures were critical in the way that our economy was viewed by the World Bank and investors in the economy.
The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan remains our blue print for actions going forward, but let me just emphasize a few points. First, we will continue to provide strong macroeconomic management, by increasing revenues and getting out more delivery of infrastructure and services with every naira spent.
We will also maintain efforts to bring inflation down, stabilize the exchange rate and reduce interest rates. Similarly, our debt will be kept within sustainable limits while borrowing will be used strictly for capital expenditure and to rebalance the ratio of domestic to external debt.
Increasing productivity in agriculture and industry is critical. We simply must produce, productivity is crucial. This is easier said than done but it must be done. We have focused on agriculture and the agro-allied value chain with our focus on cheaper and improved inputs, local fertilizer production, cheaper credit for farmers through the Anchor Borrowers’ programme — productivity in the agricultural sector is at an all-time high. Rice imports have dropped by 70%. And we are fast becoming one of the largest producers of paddy rice in the world. Now we are producing about 7metric ton of paddy rice.
Agriculture is providing more jobs than ever before, as it contributes more to GDP. More investments are coming into agriculture; Walcot, one of the agro-allied companies, a few months ago, opened its 120,000 metric ton rice mill in Kebbi.
The Indorama opened a 3million metric ton fertilizer plant in Rivers State also a few weeks ago. Dangote is investing in a total capacity of 1million metric tons of rice mills and that will be ready by May 2018. Olam’s poultry and feed mill which recently opened in Kaduna is the largest in the country today.
In the same vein, we will continue to lay emphasis on adding value to our oil and gas resources. Thus, in addition to ensuring the availability of premium motor spirit and other refined petroleum products by supporting the building of additional refineries, including modular ones, we are also seeing viable investments in fertilizer, petrochemical and gas liquefaction plants.
Ensuring the availability and sufficiency of electricity remains a major priority for the Federal Government. It seems to have almost gone unnoticed, that our discussion about power generation has gone from talking about 4000 MW to 7000MW, alongside an increase in transmission capacity.
In addition, we remain focused on implementing the Power Sector Recovery Plan, the eligible customer arrangement and boosting the contribution of renewable energy to our national energy mix.
Transport infrastructure is one area in which Nigerians come into contact daily because roads, air and rail are essential for commerce, especially the movement of people and goods. While the Federal Government is making steady, but strategic progress on both the narrow and standard gauge rail lines, it is quite evident that it does not have the resources to repair and rebuild all of the road network that we all desire to see.
This is why the Federal Executive Council recently approved the revision and deepening of the Road Trust Fund. A scheme that would enable the private sector to develop roads of interest to them in exchange for tax credits. We already have several expressions of interest in this and there are already agreements that are going into operation in relation with this road trust fund.
We are confident that with this scheme, and other related ones such as handing over key roads to State Governments to repair would lead to a much improved road network in a short period.
Diversification of our revenue earnings from dependence on oil is a key policy objective for us. Aside from developing exports, effective tax collection is key. Federal and State authorities are being pushed to aggressively collect taxes. Without increasing taxes, if we spread the tax net, if we increase collection of taxes, we will be doing far better in terms of revenue than we are doing today.
The focus on oil, has also given rise to a complete dependence by the federal government but more so the States on the monthly federal allocation.
Most States today, earn less than N1billion a month from internally generated revenue. 15 States earn less than N500million a month and about three states earn less than N300million a month from internally generated revenue. Of course, these are outrageously low earnings from taxation.
Before oil, all that the three regions we had at the time, was agriculture and taxes. Yet the West, just to cite an example, was exporting cocoa, built the tallest building in Africa, the first television station in Africa, hundreds of miles of roads, farm settlements and industrial estates.
The same territory and more people are available today. So there is absolutely no reason we can’t ramp up taxes, but federal and state taxes.
Lagos, Rivers and Ogun States have shown what is possible with effective taxation and promotion of industry. Lagos generates more revenues now than 31 States put together. The revolution started in 2004 when President Obasanjo seized the local government funds of Lagos State.
With almost 40% loss of income from FAAC Lagos begun an aggressive reform of its tax system. The results is what we see today, that the State can survive without any recourse to Federal allocation.
Rivers States earns roughly N85billon annually, Ogun State earns N72billion. Ogun State is somewhat interesting because, unlike Rivers State which has a captive market of oil companies, Ogun State has had to aggressively attract industry and use its strategic proximity to Lagos to offer a cheaper deal to investors. So it has been able to ramp up its taxes.
I think that taxes are so crucial, collecting taxes, VAT, income taxes and corporation taxes will be crucial as we increase our revenues.
Finally, why is that we cannot afford another recession now or in the future? Simple, every year we are growing at the rate of 2.6% percent per annum. We can only create jobs and feed our people if our growth rate is at least double that figure. In other words, if we are able to increase our economy and possibly, double or triple that figure.
By 2050, we will have the fourth largest population in the world. Over 60% of that population will be young men and women who will need education, jobs and a future for their families.
There is no society yet on earth that has had that size of population and did not have the technology, educational facilities and other infrastructure to sustain it. The cost of being the first such nation will be too grave to bear.
Honorable members, distinguished colleagues, the obligation that history and providence has thrust upon us today is to honestly do all we can to ensure that the future of our people is secure and prosperous. We must not walk this path of recession again.

Prof. Yemi Osinbajo is the Vice President, Federal Republic of Nigeria.


#2018Budget: Budget Of Consolidation – Buhari


President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday presented an appropriation bill of N8.612 trillion for 2018.
The President, while presenting the document before the joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja, said the budget was meant to consolidate the achievements of previous budgets.
He said the 2018 budget was also to deliver on Nigeria’s economic recovery growth.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the proposed budget had a 16 per cent increase compared to the 2017 appropriation of N7.298 trillion.
Buhari said that 30.8per cent of the budget proposal had been dedicated to capital expenditure, while N3.494 trillion of the proposal had been set aside for recurrent expenditure.
According to him, N2.014trillion of the budget has been set aside for debt servicing.
He further stated that the 2018 appropriation was under pin by an oil bench mark of 45 dollars per barrel, oil production level of 2.3 million barrel per day and exchange rate of N305 to the dollar.



The President said the size of the 2018 budget was a reflection of his administration’s determination to consolidate and sustain the nation’s economic growth.
While reviewing the performance of his administration, Buhari noted that N1.2 trillion had so far been expended on execution of capital projects through 2016 budget.
He said the Federal Government had also invested 500 million dollars in the nation’s Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) as part of deliberate measures to support government’s diversification drives.
The President announced that the nation’s external reserve presently stood at 34 billion dollars as of Sept. 2017, while the country recorded trade surplus of N56.5 billion as of second quarter of 2017.
On food security, the President said that a committee headed by Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo had been inaugurated to check smuggling of food items across the country’s border towns.
He warned that food smugglers would be dealt with accordingly by the government.

Source: The Nation


Nigeria’s economy not booming – Obasanjo

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has observed that Nigeria’s economy is not booming yet.
He made the observation at 52nd Annual Service of Songs of 1st ECWA Church, Ilorin, Kwara State capital.
Obasanjo urged Nigerians to be patient, adding that the current hard time would not last.
“This current hard time will not last. The economy is not booming. Everyone is feeling the heat but people should be patient. Small and large scale business owners are all feeling it. It is normal for people to experience hardship as a result of the current economic challenges. People should be patient; it will not last.”
National Bureau of Statistics had on September 5 announced that Nigerian economy was out of recession.
NBS said that in the second quarter of 2017, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.55 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms which indicated the exit of the economy from recession after five consecutive quarters of contractions since the first quarter of 2016.

Source: reubenabati.com




NIGERIA IS OUT OF RECESSION AND PRESIDENT BUHARI IS TRANSFORMING THE ECONOMY, BY KEMI ADEOSUN

Around the middle of 2014, when the price of crude oil fell dramatically, Nigeria’s finances became challenged. This is not hard to explain: We’ve historically depended on crude oil for as much as 70 per cent of government revenues and 90 per cent of foreign exchange earnings. The outcome—pressure on government finances—was by no means unusual. A similar fate befell most oil-rich countries around the world.
Where Nigeria possibly stood out was in the fact that during the preceding three years—when oil prices were in excess of $100 per barrel—the previous administration did little in terms of saving and investing for the future. Our sovereign wealth fund—which was established in October 2012 with just US$1 billion—did not receive any further inflow during the oil price boom. Instead, billions of dollars were squandered through corrupt oil and defense contracts.
It is a terrible thing for a country to fall on hard times without a savings buffer. But there was nothing unexpected about our downturn. It was the inevitable result of the choices we made or didn’t make during the years of boom.
What is remarkable—yet not talked about as much—is the way we have worked so hard to exit the recession, reset the economy and reposition Nigeria for a brighter future for present and future generations of Nigerians. President Muhammadu Buhari and his administration are laying the foundations for the kind of economic growth that makes a real impact in the lives of citizens.
The downturn has inspired unprecedented levels of fiscal responsibility, in line with President Buhari’s determination to fight Nigeria’s endemic corruption.
Shortly after taking office, he issued a presidential order mandating the immediate implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) system, consolidating thousands of government accounts scattered across banks into a unified system that is transparent and easy to centrally monitor and track. Under the old system, it was common for government accounts to be converted into personal use, but under the TSA this is impossible. Also, the proliferation of accounts encouraged several questionable practices.
Budgetary reform has also taken a lot of our time and attention. We are pioneering the use of software to prepare our annual budgets, which allows greater transparency and the ability to track changes.
We have insisted on using biometric verification in the deployment of our social investment programme, which includes a job scheme for unemployed graduates; a school feeding scheme for primary school pupils; a conditional cash transfer scheme targeting a million of our poorest citizens; and a micro-credit scheme for artisans, farmers, and traders. In the past, social investment payments would have been made as cash handouts.
A similar insistence on biometric verification for the federal payroll has resulted in the detection of tens of thousands of bogus beneficiaries—or “ghost workers,” as we often refer to them in Nigeria—and savings running into billions of naira every month. The tighter rein on public finances allowed us invest $500 million in our sovereign wealth fund during a recession.
We are pursuing unprecedented cooperation with foreign governments and powers, as part of our transparency and anti-corruption drive. For the simple reason that a disproportionate amount of public funds looted in Nigeria end up in the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria has signed bilateral agreements with the UAE government on extradition, exchange of information, and repatriation of stolen public funds.
One strong demonstration of our political will has been a whistleblowing scheme we launched months ago that empowers citizens to report public corruption. The impact in terms of recoveries has exceeded our expectations: In two high-profile examples, $43 million and $9.8 million in looted cash were recovered from apartments in Lagos in the south and Kaduna in the north respectively.
A lot of the work we have done since President Buhari came to office in May 2015 has been focused on dismantling the old ways of doing things, rebuilding them, and empowering and fortifying our institutions with technology to block loopholes, discourage abuse, and prevent a relapse into the destructive ways of the past.
The new Nigeria we seek will not happen without this kind of foundational reform that imposes on us new ways of thinking and of doing things. The early results are already being seen. A concerted focus on agriculture has seen our rice imports from Thailand dropping by 90 per cent between 2015 and 2016 and being replaced by locally grown variants.
As oil has let us down, we have started to do what we should have done decades ago: Invest in agriculture and mining. Throughout the recession, agriculture recorded healthy growth. As we emerge from the recession, its impact is certain to multiply and position Nigeria for a prosperous future.
The most important elements of any reform effort tend to be the least flamboyant. We are confident that in the months and years ahead, Nigerians and the world will see the full impact of the foundational resetting that the Buhari administration has been focused on since 2015.
There is of course a lot of resistance to reform, by vested interests within and outside the system. But we are not fazed. The work of reform goes on. To borrow a phrase from the Nigerian novelist, Chinua Achebe, it is morning yet on Creation Day. Not very long from now, Nigerians and the world will look back on the recession we have just emerged from, and realize that it was the turning point in Nigeria's journey to true growth and greatness.

Kemi Adeosun is the Minister of Finance of Nigeria.

Culled from Newsweek